Mortgage Debt Least Since 2006, Student Debt Slaves, FNMA Housing Forecast, HELOC Comeback, G-Fee Hike, MIPs For Life, Urban Teardown Farms, John Stumpf Interview, HARP-QE3-Refis, “Mobile Capture” Technology, 2 on Ben, First Time Homebuyer, Mods Default

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(delevering not help Fed) Mortgage debt at lowest levels since 2006 – Posted by cmlynski – … Mortgage debt is at its lowest levels since 2006, at $8.03 trillion. Delinquency rates for mortgages also decreased from 6.3% to 5.9% … – Housingwire 
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(debt slaves no escape hurts housing) Escalating Delinquency Rates Make Student Loans Look Like the New Subprime – Yves Smith – … and average debt levels among student borrowers is $23,000. … so the average amount borrowed by recent grads is certain to be higher. Student debt is senior to all other consumer debt; … As a result, it has contributed to the fall in the homeownership rate, … – Naked Capitalism 
and
The Scariest Chart Of The Quarter: Student Debt Bubble Officially Pops As 90+ Day Delinquency Rate Goes Parabolic – Submitted by Tyler Durden – Zero Hedge 
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Fannie Mae Revises Forecast in Light of Positive Developments – BY: ESTHER CHO – Given improvements seen in housing and the economy, Fannie Mae revised its housing forecast for this year and the next in its November economic outlook report. – The M Report

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Home Equity Loans Make Comeback Fueling U.S. Spending – By Kathleen M. Howley – … After six years of declines, lending for so-called Helocs will rise 30 percent to $79.6 billion in 2012, the highest level since the start of the financial crisis in 2008, according to the economics research unit of Moody’s Corp. Originations next year will jump another 31 percent to $104 billion, it projected. … – Bloomberg

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G-fee hike in key states faces limited opposition – By Kerri Ann Panchuk – Housingwire

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New 30-year debt: FHA to collect MIPs for life of mortgage – Posted by Megan Hopkins – Housingwire 
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(urban teardown farms) A Vacant Lot Offers Refugees a Taste of Home – By FERNANDA SANTOS – NY Times
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(interesting interview, many points) Wells Fargo CEO: Why Americans are saving so much – By Geoff Colvin – CEO John Stumpf discusses how his bank has seen record savings deposit growth, as more Americans look for safe places to put their cash. – CNN Money

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(3 charts) HARP and QE3 will keep mortgage refi humming in 2013 – Sober Look Blog – US mortgage prepayment speeds have accelerated to the highest level since 2004 recently. …  It means that the older mortgages with homes that are more likely to be “under water” are actually refinancing faster. …
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(“Mobile capture” technology) New Technology to Revolutionize Reverse Mortgage Document Transfers – by Elizabeth Ecker – The technology used by many to send checks or signed agreements from their mobile devices could have the potential to revolutionize the reverse mortgage borrower experience through document capture – Reverse Mortgage Daily

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Bernanke’s Easy Money Death Spiral – By Vince Foster – QE is impeding capital investment by raising cost of capital volatility risk. Here’s why the more easy money we get, the longer it will take to build a sustainable recovery. – Minyanville

vs.
I’m a Believer in Ben – Bob Lang, Benzinga

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The vanishing first-time homebuyer – by Kerri Ann Panchuk – It was only a matter of time before the market learned the true fate of the young, first-time homebuyer who may have a solid credit history and a good job, but lacks a 20% downpayment. The reality is they are disappearing before our very eyes. – Housingwire
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Loan modification defaults soar 24%, can-kicking fails – …  When a borrower has gone Ponzi, the “rough patch” is when they are cut off from more Ponzi borrowing.  … – OC Housing News

Bulk Investors, 6.5% Unemployment Goal, Dodd-Frank Beliefs, Bill McBride of Calculated Risk, London Hot Spots, Mortgage Banking Outsourcing, Seasonal Decline, Morgan Stanley Forecast, UBS Repurchase Suit, No FHA Bailout, Housing is Popular, QE Not Working Yet

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(read this outstanding) Bulk Investors And The Real-Estate ‘Recovery’ – Submitted by Tyler Durden – Via Pater Tenebrarum of Acting-Man blog – Zero Hedge

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Federal Reserve official aims for 6.5% unemployment – By Annalyn Kurtz @CNNMoney – … Known as the 7/3 rule, his initial suggestion would have kept interest rates near zero until the unemployment rate falls to 7% or inflation exceeds 3% a year. Now, he’s changing that proposal, suggesting the central bank keep low interest rates in place even longer. He wants to see the unemployment rate fall to at least 6.5% and inflation not exceed 2.5% a year. …

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(56% believe) DODD FRANK WON’T DRIVE FINANCIAL STABILITY, ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG FX12 SUMMIT ATTENDEES – Bloomberg Blog
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(Calculated Risk’s Bill McBride) The Genius Who Invented Economics Blogging Reveals How He Got Everything Right And What’s Coming Next – Joe Weisenthal – Business Insider

and
(demographic list of housing and cars) How The Doomers Got It Wrong – Joe Weisenthal – interviews bill McBride of Calculated Risk – Business Insider

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(location, location) London House Prices Rise as Property ‘Hot Spots’ Surge: Economy – By Svenja O’Donnell – … Properties in the city’s nine most expensive districts — where average prices exceed 600,000 pounds — surged 3.4 percent. Nationally, values fell 2.6 percent. … – Bloomberg

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The Next Move for Mortgages – By JON LAING – The outsourcing of mortgage banking is the wave of the future, and PHH is primed to benefit. – Barrons

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(chart too) Update: Case-Shiller House Prices will probably decline month-to-month Seasonally starting in October – by Bill McBride – … The CoreLogic index has already started to decline on a month-to-month basis. This is not a sign of impending doom – or another collapse in house prices – it is just the normal seasonal pattern. … – Calculated Risk
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(fiscal cliff) Morgan Stanley’s Doom Scenario: Major Recession in 2013 – By: Deepanshu Bagchee – CNBC 
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(repurchases) UBS Leads Wall Street Bid to Halt FHFA Mortgage-Bond Suit – By David McLaughlin – … (FHFA) claims that loans backing securities sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were riskier than promised, leading to losses. The original amount of securities at issue in the cases is about $200 billion, according to the agency. UBS, which says FHFA “sat” on its claims, argues the case should be dismissed because the claims expired in 2010 and are time-barred by the so-called statute of repose, according to court filing. … – Bloomberg 
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(bailout not needed?) FHA is tweaking programs to improve revenue and cut losses – Among other changes, new borrowers early next year are likely to be charged slightly higher (10bp) annual mortgage insurance premiums. – By Kenneth R. Harney – LA Times

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(CRPR paper) Why is housing such a popular investment? A new psychological explanation – Thomas Alexander Stephens, Jean-Robert Tyran – Despite its meagre real returns in the long run, many people still think that investing in housing is a good idea. This column argues that a major reason for the tendency to buy houses is that it’s rare to lose money. Recent research shows people’s perceptions of housing transactions to be shaped by whether they gain or lose money – above and beyond the real returns. – hattip NDP – Voxeu.org 
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(no stimulus yet, 2 charts) Some securities purchases but no QE from the Fed yet – Sober Look Blog  – The Fed’s latest securities purchases are still not having much of an impact on bank reserves (see discussion). The net effect of Fed’s recent activities is equivalent to sterilization, although this is probably not what the central bank had intended. 

Fiscal Cliff Outcome, CU’s Want Servicing, FHA Loss Mitigation, REMICs, Buyers and Renters, Homebuilder Boom, Goosing Numbers, MERS Oregon Decision, Housing Starts Accelerate, All Cash Buyers, RE/MAX Stats, FNMA and Force Placed, Housing Starts, 41 AGs Sign, Ocwen and Walter

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David Malpass’ Fiscal Cliff Playbook and Likely Outcome – Posted by Larry Doyle – Sense on Cents 
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Credit unions want shot at mortgage servicing rights – Posted by kpanchuk – … “We think credit unions are well equipped for expanded investment powers,” said Tessema Tefferi, regulatory affairs counsel for NAFCU. “Unfortunately, they are not allowed to service mortgages that they have not issued.” … – Housingwire

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FHA announcement FHA expands loss mitigation options – Posted by cmlynski – Housingwire 
and
link to 11 page FHA announcement
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(Remics) Why a Tax Crackdown Is Not Needed on Mortgage-Backed Securities – BY VICTOR FLEISCHER – … I do not think that is the case here. The Remic rules are designed to prevent operating companies from avoiding the corporate tax. Banks and other financial institutions that originate mortgages should pay the corporate tax. Passive conduits should not. The lawyers failed here because … – NY Times Dealbook

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Reasons people buy homes and reasons people rent, including the bad ones – OC Housing News
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Chart Of The Day: The Homebuilder Boom – Cullen Roche – … The Case Shiller index is up about 4.5% year-to-date. But the S&P Homebuilders Index ETF is up almost 55% year-to-date. … – Seeking Alpha 
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Mortgage Settlement Monitor “Progress” Report Gooses Numbers to Hide Lack of Real Relief to Homeowners – Yves Smith – … Oh, but wait, they can take credit for modifying OTHER PEOPLE’S MORTGAGES, meaning those owned by investors. And they’ve been doing that in more than half the cases.    … – Naked Capitalism
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Controversial MERS decision breaks Oregon foreclosure chain – By Kerri Ann Panchuk – A controversial appellate court decision about the Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems in Oregon is stalling lending in the state with smaller banks worried about the decision’s impact on access to the secondary mortgage market. The case, which is called Niday v. GMAC Mortgage, is on appeal to the Oregon Supreme Court. – Housingwire

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(chart) Sorry, But You Have To Look At This Chart Of Housing Starts Going Totally Bananas – Joe Weisenthal – One more time. Let’s just gawk at the crazy acceleration of housing starts this month. – Business Insider
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Show Me The Money: More Home Buyers Bringing All Cash To The Table – by Michele Dawson – … Most of the all-cash buyers are investors, Yun said. … increase in the number of international buyers. … Another segment of homebuyers that is using all cash is boomers who are downsizing. They sometimes have enough equity in the home they sell to pay all cash for a smaller home. Cash sales often mean quick sales. … – Realty Biz News

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RE/MAX: Home Sales, Prices Rise in October as Inventory Creates Concern – BY: ESTHER CHO – The M Report 
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Fannie Mae Pushes Force-Placed Insurance Reform – Jeff Horwitz – Fannie is seeking to require banks and other mortgage servicers to replace existing force-placed policies on loans it guarantees with insurance provided by a consortium of carriers offering discounts. – Insurance Networking News  
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(interesting chart) Single Family Housing Starts As A Percent Of Total Starts – Bespoke Investment Group – Seeking Alpha 
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Forty-One AGs Sign Letter Urging Congress to Extend Debt Relief Act – BY: ESTHER CHO – DS News 
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Ocwen, Walter credit risk rises with market share – Posted by kpanchuk … But the two firms’ recent acquisition of the servicing and origination platforms of Residential Capital out of bankruptcy creates ongoing credit risks at both shops due to the operational complexities for both Ocwen and Walter in merging existing platforms, Moody’s wrote. … – Housingwire

ZIRP and Reverse Mortgages, When Fed Hikes, Fed and Gold, Workflow Processing, Headship Rate, Housing Supply Drops, Single HO Buyers, mREIT Pressure, Mods and Shadow Inventory, Redfin, Banks Hiring, LTVs and FCs, Rescap

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Will Zero Percent Interest Rates Force Older Homeowners Into Reverse Mortgages? – by Donna S. Robinson – Realty Biz News 
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(3 charts) Shifting expectations of the Fed’s first rate hike – Discussions on the first tightening move by the Fed are taking place once again, as investors become a bit more optimistic about the US economy. The tightening action timing was brought into spotlight by the latest speech by Bernanke. The Chairman did not discuss further QE in 2013, which was somewhat unexpected (and disappointing to some) – Sober Look Blog 
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(another way to kick the can) The Keynesian Fiscal Cliff: Federal Reserve Out of Ammunition – By Peter Lumaj – … The news is this: before the Fed goes bankrupt, it should mark-up the value of this gold equity reserves. Our guess is that the Federal Reserve will continue marching along the fiscal Keynesian cliff without ever having to touch its gold reserves. Institutions will be bailed out. Spending and taxation will not be cut. … – Examiner.com 
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(compliance and workflow processing) Using Technology To Solve Default Servicing Challenges – by Ron Redmer – MortgageOrb

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(introducing ‘headship rate’) Goldman Sachs On The Demographic Trend That Could Keep The Housing Market Booming For Years – Joe Weisenthal    – … The improvement in expected household formation is driven by an increasing headship rate among the young, population growth, and the aging population.  … For those not familiar with the term “headship rate” it basically just means the rate at which individuals become heads of households, something that dropped precipitously during the crisis … – Business Insider

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If You’re Trying To Sell Your Home, You Will Be Thrilled By This Chart – Joe Weisenthal – … The important line here is the red line: Months of housing supply on the market. The months of supply is down to 5.4 months, which is down from last month, and sharply down from a year ago. … – Business Insider 
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(stringent credit standards?) NAR: Fewer Single Buyers Make Up The Housing Market – by Michele Dawson – … The 2012 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers reveals that 65 percent of all buyers are married couples. Two years ago, just 58 percent of buyers were married. … – Realty Biz News 
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mREITs still under pressure – … We believe it’s more an issue of a lack of MBS demand, rather than selling, but it’s been another source of pressure. … – Sober Look Blog
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(charts and comments) Borrowers with modified mortgages re-default as homes re-enter shadow inventory – Sober Look Blog – … We think we are now seeing a wave of re-defaults from the modifications over the last two years that failed. This wave should last through 2013, and a greater share of current-to-30 rolls will come from re-defaults going forward. …
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Redfin: October Home Sales Defy Usual Slowdown – BY: TORY BARRINGER – The M Report

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(Banks finally hiring) Banks Hiring for Home Loans as U.S. Rebounds – By Heather Perlberg – Bloomberg
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ProTeck Examines Relationship Between LTV Ratios and Foreclosure – BY: KRISTA FRANKS BROCK – … The probability of foreclosure peaks during either the second or third year of distress, according to ProTek. LTV is also “a key driver” in the transition into foreclosure, … In their first year of negative equity, properties with an LTV of 125 percent have just under a 15 percent chance of going into foreclosure. Properties with an LTV of 200 percent have just over 40 percent chance of falling into foreclosure. … – DS News 
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ResCap Wins Court Approval of Ocwen Servicing Unit Sale – By Steven Church – … The ruling comes after ResCap resolved the main objections from the servicing unit’s biggest customers, including mortgage- owners Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. ResCap will continue negotiating with Fannie Mae and other mortgage holders over their demands for so-called cure payments, cash payments that compensate creditors for actual and potential losses caused by a bankruptcy filing. … – Bloomberg

Negative Interest Rates, and the Thrift Paradox – Nom de Plumber’s Thought of the Day

  Nom de Plumber is a Nom de Plume.

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From HSBC July 2012:  Living with Negative Yields     http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2012/07/Living-with-negative-yields.pdf 

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The Adverse Income AND Wealth effects are two edges of the ZIRP Blade, each taking  turns to slice economic growth.

Savers foresee that the liquidity, convenience, and after-tax real return of cash may be better in an idle safety deposit box (“iron mattress” ) than in a bank CD.  Financial intermediation and monetary velocity seem poised to tumble, dragging down long-term credit creation and business investment. Quantitative easing would inadvertently shrink secular economic growth, spiraling even lower the returns of financial investments.  Notably, when Volcker sharply hiked interest rates, the subsequent recession was much shorter and shallower than the present, ongoing one, ushering in an era of excellent bond returns for savers.

Savers understand that, whenever rates rebound, their recent fixed-income investments can steeply depreciate in market value (reversal of the current bond bubble).  Such policy-linked future capital losses only compound the prevailing interest income drought, hardening their consumption resistance. The Thrift Paradox has gained a stalwart pillar, courtesy of Quantitative Easing.

Thank you.

Developing a Lease-to-Own Market – by JACK GUTTENTAG

A lease-to-own (LTO) transaction is one in which a potential home buyer occupies the home as a tenant but has an option to purchase it within a specified period at a specified price. In exchange, the potential buyer pays a non-refundable option fee upfront plus a monthly rent. In a recent article, I noted the intense interest in LTO deals today by wannabe home buyers who can’t qualify for the mortgage they need to make a purchase now.

Despite the large demand, not many LTO deals are being done. They are very complicated and most potential buyers and sellers don’t know where to go to get help. Further, most sellers view the LTO as a last resort rather than as a potentially profitable investment. In addition, there is no marketplace where potential buyers and sellers can connect.

To deal with these problems, I developed a three-part plan. Part 1 focusing on contractual complexity was to develop with Jack Pritchard a checklist of all the major provisions that might be included in an LTO, explaining the implications of each for both buyer and seller. The checklist can be used as a negotiating platform for the two parties, who can turn the results over to a local lawyer for conversion into a contract. This list is at Lease-to-Own Home Purchases: Huge Demand But Few Deals.

Part 2 focusing on seller reluctance is an LTO calculator developed with Chuck Freedenberg, and is the subject of this article. The calculator allows potential sellers to view an LTO deal as an investment generating an attractive rate of return, relative to what the seller could obtain by selling at the best price obtainable in the current market. The investment return is net of the costs of ownership during the option period, including mortgage interest payments, property taxes, homeowners insurance and other expenses of ownership. See Lease-to-Own Calculator.

Viewing an LTO as a profitable investment should make it a more attractive option to sellers. The potential saving on real estate sales commission, not included in the return on investment, would be icing on the cake. 

Here is an example. The seller could get $100,000 if he placed the house on the market today. The balance on his 6% mortgage is $60,000, giving him homeowner equity of $40,000 if he sells now. If he does an LTO, the costs of ownership during the option period sum to $610, which includes a $500 mortgage payment, but he is paid an option fee and a monthly rent. In addition, the option price may be higher than the current market price. The calculator shows the following combinations of option fee, monthly rent and option price that will generate a 10% yield over a 12-month option period: 

*Option fee of $1,000, monthly rent of $610, option price of $100,660

*Option fee of $1,000, monthly rent of $501, option price of $102,000.

*Option fee of $654, monthly rent of $610, option price of $101,000. 

Of course, the prospective buyer may not find any of these options desirable – among other reasons, she might need a longer option period than 12 months.

A seller and a buyer negotiating a deal can use the calculator together to find the best set of terms that are satisfactory to both.

Negotiations between buyers and sellers at the outset will probably focus on the rate of return, which is based on an estimate of current property value used to calculate it. In setting the current value, we recommend that the two parties agree to accept the judgment of an appraiser. 

Part 3 of my plan to develop an LTO market is to provide an on-line forum where potential buyers and sellers can interact. Sellers would take the initiative in presenting information about the house for sale, and would provide a range of options acceptable to themselves from which potential buyers could make a selection. The table illustrates this approach. Stay tuned. 

Jack M. Guttentag, now Professor of Finance Emeritus, formerly Jacob Safra Professor of International Banking, at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Earlier he was Chief of the Domestic Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, on the senior staff of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and managing editor of both the Journal of Finance (1974-77) and the Housing Finance Review (1983-89).

Atlanta-NY-Chicago, Unpunished, Price to Rent, Miami Booms. Settlement and Short Sales, Buy mREITs, Aging in Suburbs, Repurchase Demands, Bernanke Reflates, Non-Agency Mod Defaults, FICOs Rise, Housing Boosts GDP, FHA Dilemma

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Why Atlanta, New York, and Chicago are poised to drive a housing recovery – Posted by Neil Irwin – Washington Post 
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Justice in America: Systematic Document Forgery and Fabrication Yields One Criminal Plea Bargain – Naked Capitalism 
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WaPo: Price-to-rent ratio for Certain Cities – by Bill McBride – .. This graph shows the price-to-rent ratio of Case-Shiller and OER for Denver, Portland and San Diego (cities Irwin didn’t include). … – Calculated Risk

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Miami Booms Like Never Before on Rental Demand: Mortgage – By Nadja Brandt – Bloomberg

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Most aid from mortgage settlement in state going to short sales – By Alejandro Lazo and E. Scott Reckard, Los Angeles Times – In California, little of the relief from Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo has gone toward principal reduction to help families keep their homes.   
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It Is Time To Start Accumulating Agency Mortgage REITs – Zvi Bar – Seeking Alpha

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AARP: Most Americans Will Age in Suburbs – by Elizabeth Ecker – Reverse Mortgage Daily

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(gives 8 reasons Why A Repurchase Or Indemnification Demand May Be Unjustified) – Loan Originators Be Warned: Not All Errors Justify Buyback Demands – BY PHILIP R. STEIN – Mortgage Crisis Watch Blog 
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Bernanke pledges to do what he can to reflate the housing bubble – OC Housing News

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(Non-agency) Modified-Mortgage Defaults Soar 24% in Looming Housing Challenge – By Jody Shenn – (Bloomberg) — New delinquencies on reworked mortgages held by bonds without government backing jumped in September, a sign that some of the fuel for housing’s recovery isn’t sustainable, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. – has stats – Bloomberg Businessweek 
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Average FICO score getting higher for approved mortgages – Posted by kpanchuk – … the average FICO score on closed, first-lien loans hit 750 in October, which is up from 741 last August, Ellie Mae said. … Furthermore, the credit score on denied applications also rose from a year ago, suggesting credit standards actually tightened during the same period. The average FICO on denied applications hit 706 in October of 2012, … On denied applications, the average LTV hit 87 in October, up from 82 in August of 2011. … – Housingwire 
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(chart) The Homebuilder Confidence Jump Is Foreshadowing A Huge Boost To GDP – Business Insider 
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The FHA Dilemma: Just Another Brick In The Window? – by Phil Hall – … continued silence over the blatant reality that federal housing finance policy has degenerated into a complete and total shambles. In the four years since the 2008 economic crash, the FHA has been pushed beyond the fraying point to handle a depth and scope of responsibility that is far exceeds what the agency was designed to accommodate. This has been unfair to the FHA staff – they have done an extraordinary job under atrocious circumstances … – MortgageOrb

Origination Data, Fed’s Threshold, Reverse Upswing, Rosner on GSEs, Robert Samuelson on Fiscal Cliff, FHA Woes, Negative Equity Support, HomeSteps Bonus, Homeownership Stays Low

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Report: Originations Up in Q3, Market Opens Up Among Top Lenders – BY: TORY BARRINGER – … The findings were based on origination data for 29 lenders that accounted for 77 percent of the total estimated market. According to the findings, the market share at the five biggest originators was about 52.5 percent, down from 53.9 percent in the second quarter. The top five lenders— Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, USBank, Bank of America, and Quicken Loans —maintained their spots, but only BofA and Quicken managed to keep their market shares from declining. … – The M Report 
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(threshold rule?) Yesterday, Fed Governor Janet Yellen Revealed The Fed’s Next Move – Joe Weisenthal – Business Insider 
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Fed’s Yellen backs holding rates near zero to 2016 – By Braden Reddall – Reuters

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New Indicators Point to Reverse Mortgage Upswing – by Elizabeth Ecker – Reverse Mortgage Daily 
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Wall Street Kept Winning on Mortgages Upending Homeowners – By Bob Ivry – Bloomberg Businessweek 
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Hey Fannie and Freddie, Pay Us Back! – By JOSHUA ROSNER – … Even more remarkable than their $140 billion public debt (the money lent to the agencies minus dividends paid) — equivalent to the stock market capitalizations of the Starbucks Corporation, the Kellogg Company and the McDonald’s Corporation combined — is that there seems to be no active plan to make taxpayers whole again. This, in short, has become the forgotten bailout. … – NY Times 
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(would work but would they do it?) The ‘fiscal cliff’ deal we need – By Robert J. Samuelson – Washington Post 
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Drop in FHA Insurance Fund Sparks Talk of Treasury Draw – BY: TORY BARRINGER – Then M Report 
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HUD: FHA does not need immediate Treasury rescue – By Christina Mlynski – Housingwire

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With Housing Demand Rebounding, Negative Equity Now Supports Housing Values – Dr. Duru – Seeking Alpha 
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GSE Announces Winter Bonus for Agents Who Sell HomeSteps Homes – BY: ESTHER CHO    – Agents who sell HomeSteps homes, or Freddie Mac-owned residences, are eligible for winter bonuses. Freddie Mac announced it will pay a $1,000 bonus to a selling agent and $500 to listing agents as part of a winter promotion. – DS News 
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Homeownership Remains Low Despite Decreasing Burden of Owning – BY: KRISTA FRANKS BROCK    – … according to a recent report from Fannie Mae. … The national homeownership rate has declined in each of the past four years, … The decline among those 25 to 44 years of age is more than twice the overall decline. … – DS News

Thanksgiving and Weekend Reading: 220 Stories in 90 Days, Kyle Bass Letter, 2 on Housing Bubbles

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(fun read) Sky City: China to Build World’s Tallest Building, 220 Stories, in 90 Days – Michael Shedlock) – MISH’S Global Economic Trend Analysis
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(has 31 page letter attached) Kyle Bass: Fallacies Such As MMT Are “Leading The Sheep To Slaughter” And “We Believe War Is Inevitable” – Submitted by Tyler Durden – Zero Hedge 

and
(sell MGIC buy NMI) Famous Bettor Against Subprime Kyle Bass Is Bullish On A Brand New Mortgage Insurer – Julia La Roche – Business Insider
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(study of how bubbles work) Greatest Real Estate Bubble In Modern History Not Done Bursting –  Harry Dent – Forbes 
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Grantham: Biggest Housing Bubble Since 807 A.D. Has Burst – Submitted by George Washington – Zero Hedge

Affecting Owners of Mortgages: Late Payers, Refis and Duration, SBIC Mezz Funds, Annaly and CreXus, AIG Wants Jumbos, Adam Levitin on BofA vs. MBIA

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Late-payment rate on mortgages declined in 3Q – By Alex Veiga – (AP) — U.S. homeowners are doing a better job of keeping up with their mortgage payments, aided by an improving housing market and low interest rates that are making it easier to refinance. The percentage of mortgage holders at least two months behind on their payments fell in the third quarter to 5.41 percent, the lowest point in more than three years, credit reporting agency TransUnion said Tuesday. – Bloomberg Businessweek
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Freddie Mac: Most refis don’t shorten mortgage duration – Posted by cmlynski – Housingwire 
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(gov’t leverage opportunity) SBIC mezz funds use cheap government loans to juice up returns – Sober Look Blog 
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In Annaly’s CreXus Bid, Citi Sees Broader Capital Shift out of Agencies – By Michael Aneiro – Barrons Blogs  
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AIG CEO Reveals Plans to Expand Mortgage Business – BY: TORY BARRINGER – Housingwire 
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AIG keen to sell bank, expand mortgages: CEO – By Clare Baldwin – (Reuters) – American International Group Inc is planning to sell its savings and loan business … But even without a banking business, AIG is now looking more aggressively at making and purchasing mortgages as investment vehicles, Chief Executive Officer Bob Benmosche said … by buying mortgages directly, which is why he said AIG is talking to big banks about buying their non-agency mortgage debt. … http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/12/us-aig-assets-idUSBRE8AB0LK20121112
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(quite interesting) BofA v. MBIA and the Future of Private Label Securitization – posted by Adam Levitin – There’s a fascinating and absolutely cut-throat fight going on between BofA and MBIA. – Credit Slips 
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